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What rolling returns tell us about a Mutual Fund performance

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Most of the Mutual Fund rating websites list the past return as on today. It helps to gauge how fund have performed in past as of today, but doesn't  tell how fund has performed if the returns were calculated in past date. For example 3-year return for a fund may be 20% today, but what about 3-year returns of the same fund in past years. This is where concept of rolling returns come into play and is more effective tool, to determine the consistency of a fund in delivering good returns year after year. I wish mutual fund website could incorporate this feature and also rate the funds accordingly. Lets try an example using HDFC TOP 200 fund which has history of more than 20 years and it would be interesting to know, how the fund has performed in past based on rolling returns. I have calculated rolling returns of the fund , for 3-year, 5-year, 7-year, 10-year and 15-year period based on NAV on 1st of march. Over a 3 year period returns are unpredictable and therefore its go...
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Top 5 equity mutual funds in each category with consistent returns

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In my earlier post I laid down some rules to evaluate Large Cap funds http://moneybhasa.blogspot.in/2017/02/top-5-large-cap-mutual-funds-with.html In this post I will evaluate all equity mutual funds in different categories in a single post Large cap  Muti cap Mid/small cap Tax planning ELSS funds  The criteria remains same and reproducing it below. The fund should have at least 10 years of history. The data from value research is used which lists returns over 1-year, 3-year, 5-year and 10-year periods. The  returns are as on date 24-Feb-2017. The weighed average return is calculated by assigning following weights based on duration of returns. Annual compounded returns are taken into consideration. For 10 year returns weight is  40 out of 100 For 5 year returns weight    is  30 out of  100 For 3 year returns weight    is  20 out of 100 For 1 year returns weight    is  10 out of 100 Hence ...
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Can Sensex returns be predicted based on PE ratio

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Morningstar had published statistical analysis to predict the sensex returns for 2 years based on overall sensex PE (Price to Earning) ratio. http://www.morningstar.in/posts/36274/how-investors-can-use-the-pe-ratio.aspx The results are interesting and give us fair idea where sensex might be headed in coming 2 years. For example if Sensex PE is in range 16-17 the model predicts 26% return over two years and  actual returns have been 28%. As of Feb 2017, the Sensex is sitting on PE of 21.96 and according to model it predicts 1 percent returns over next two years, not a good sign indeed.  It would interesting to visit the post in two years time, to validate the prediction. The  historical Sensex PE can be obtained from BSE website http://www.bseindia.com/markets/keystatics/Keystat_index.aspx?expandable=2 But having said that if you are investing through SIP with long term view , it should not bother you. For those who invest in individual stocks, its good ide...
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