Are mid caps stocks overvalued?

Mid-cap stocks are having good run on exchange since the General Election of 2014.

The overall valuation can be judged by analyzing  the P/E graph for  NIFTY Free Float Midcap 100 since it was created,

The P/E value for  NIFTY Free Float Midcap is hovering around 32 as of today, which is highest till date since the inception of this index. Even during  market crashes of 2006 and 2008 the PE was well below current value at around 26.

The median value for PE for index  is 16.83 and mean is 17.6. Reversion to mean is well known phenomenon our mid cap stocks are showing no signs of retreat as of now, only time will tell.

From behavioral aspect I can see more retail investors flocking to mid and small cap Mutual funds as the rate of interest on FD is declining.



The index movement taken form edelweiss shows the following pattern. Note that the PE values and price values move in similar pattern from February 2014 own wards, which means price have been rising without any significant rise in earnings. The index have almost doubled from 2014 over three years of time giving a returns of CAGR 25%.

Comments

Post a Comment

Popular posts from this blog

What rolling returns tell us about a Mutual Fund performance

Image
Most of the Mutual Fund rating websites list the past return as on today. It helps to gauge how fund have performed in past as of today, but doesn't  tell how fund has performed if the returns were calculated in past date. For example 3-year return for a fund may be 20% today, but what about 3-year returns of the same fund in past years. This is where concept of rolling returns come into play and is more effective tool, to determine the consistency of a fund in delivering good returns year after year. I wish mutual fund website could incorporate this feature and also rate the funds accordingly. Lets try an example using HDFC TOP 200 fund which has history of more than 20 years and it would be interesting to know, how the fund has performed in past based on rolling returns. I have calculated rolling returns of the fund , for 3-year, 5-year, 7-year, 10-year and 15-year period based on NAV on 1st of march. Over a 3 year period returns are unpredictable and therefore its go
Read more

Top 5 equity mutual funds in each category with consistent returns

Image
In my earlier post I laid down some rules to evaluate Large Cap funds http://moneybhasa.blogspot.in/2017/02/top-5-large-cap-mutual-funds-with.html In this post I will evaluate all equity mutual funds in different categories in a single post Large cap  Muti cap Mid/small cap Tax planning ELSS funds  The criteria remains same and reproducing it below. The fund should have at least 10 years of history. The data from value research is used which lists returns over 1-year, 3-year, 5-year and 10-year periods. The  returns are as on date 24-Feb-2017. The weighed average return is calculated by assigning following weights based on duration of returns. Annual compounded returns are taken into consideration. For 10 year returns weight is  40 out of 100 For 5 year returns weight    is  30 out of  100 For 3 year returns weight    is  20 out of 100 For 1 year returns weight    is  10 out of 100 Hence formula for weighed average returns Weighed Average returns =  (40*
Read more

Top 5 Large cap Mutual Funds with consistent returns

Image
The idea of this  post is to select and rank large cap funds based on consistent return over long period of time. Selecting funds pose a real challenge as the number of funds in each category keeps on increasing. Also over different period of time there is huge variation in  returns for Mutual Funds. For example a fund with great 1 year or 3 year returns may not perform good over a 5 year or 10 year period . Therefore I laid down some criteria  to pick the fund taking into consideration returns for all possible periods from 1 year to 10 year, with higher weight for long term returns. This way we can filter signal from the noise and also overcome our inherent biases. The criteria and methodology is listed below. The fund should have at least 10 years of history. The data from value research is used which lists returns over 1-year, 3-year, 5-year and 10-year periods. The  returns are as on date 24-Feb-2017. The weighed average return is calculated by assigning following weight
Read more